Mike: On one hand, I'm really not hot on Jackson or Stewart, but then again, I'm not really hot on any of my bench players at this point. nick thunderdome: OK, I've got one for you guys. Teams are ordered from easiest upcoming schedule to most difficult upcoming schedule. As mentioned, last-16 World Cup matches since 1998 average a goal from a set-piece every 0.6 games which is a huge number and shows just how important those margins can be in knockout football. But this approach treats the better equipped SEC teams playing each other in the same way as the lesser equipped Big 12 teams playing each other, thereby implying more even matchups in both cases. Time: 7:30 PM EST. This new parameter takes each team's Resource Ratio and subtracts the hypothetical average of 1.00. 21. A ton. 30. 7, Danny, 5-6) 86. Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. I'm leaning towards Grossman or Rivers, Vick reinjury risk and rust vs a tough defense. I really think this ends you up with the best solution simply being: 1. SORTA. Pierre Thomas @ MIN. A team's roster at any point consists of student-athletes from the previous five recruiting classes. All teams have 12 regular season matches (including games against Non-Power 5 teams). The primary takeaway from this chart is how two (or more) teams can have a widely different strength of schedule (based on the Average Power 5 SoS Score), and still have the same number of opponents with lower Team Roster Scores than themselves. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. So you'd go with L. Robinson over Austin? 3. In order to do this, we need to identify and quantify the "resources" available to each team. Or you can switch 2 and 3 so the division record remains more important. Editor-in-Chief I'll fast-forward to the conclusion then: the vast majority of the information in any team's strength of schedule measure comes from two sources: the two intraconference foes you play that your division mates don't, and how your divisional opponents fare against common opponents. non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. While we'll have to see how things play out, the preseason AP top 25 shows that the Crimson Tide actually have a tough schedule . I drafted Philip Rivers and he's finally been doing decently the past few gamesbut this week he goes up against the Ravens D. Joe Flacco is the best QB available off of waivers (hurray, 20 person league!). Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? I thought it would have been Houston, but unless they lose home to Carolina or Tennessee, it probably won't happen. Mike: It seems reasonable. Both teams went 7-5 against the AFC, while the Pats went 4-0 against the NFC West and the Chargers went 1-3 against the NFC South. With the quantification of the teams resources, we know that these two teams are definitely underperforming and that there is a clear gap in the utilization of their resources. Tom: As do several seemingly non-bothersome things, it kind of annoys me. Removed Bias Of Schedule PPR league, 1 point per reception, all other scoring standard. Football Outsiders is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. Individual weeks show the opponent for the week along with their rank against the position selected. I think it's kind of hard to forget. Of course, if you remove games against the Colts, I think it also makes sense to remove all of the games that essentially count for double. The Rams are fourth in DVOA at 25.5%, behind only the Ravens, Bucs and . PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. 9. 11. However, the Average Power 5 SoS Scores of these teams tells us a different story. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. In college football, strength of schedule (SoS) has generally referred to the cumulative/average/weighted strength of all the relevant opponents of a team during a given football season. It's BAL D, SD OL, and SD's trouble winning against coverage more than the straight defensive matchup. The Saints @ MIN are also available but I wasn't really considering them. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. *Ravens (12-4, 9-3, 4-2) It can't be that often right? The discussion about strength of schedule seems largely specious, at least as far as playoff teams are concerned. I was just curious to compare last year's strength of schedule (SoS) to this year's SoS, via Football Outsiders (FBO). It's barely ever in the discussion and hasn't been used as the good doctor pointed out in an earlier comment. 2 and 3 present difficulties with the NFL's current schedule, in that it's possible that two teams could go a season without managing more than one game that fits into either category: e.g. 5 min read. Games against Houston count as zero opponent victories in the upcoming year's strength of schedule for the 2002 Colts. Panthers (2-14). 12. Jacksonville was a really, really good pick-up. Guest Column: Strength of Schedule -- A Dynamic Analysis | Football Outsiders 5. Elite running game - Jamaal Charles turned out to be an absolute stud (like. I don't really see how it would. Did you put that on my phone? Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data representing the per-drive scoring advantage a team unit would be expected to have against an average opponent unit. For instance, Michigan would have a degree of mismatch of 0.12 (in favor) whereas Iowa State would have a Degree of Mismatch of 0.17 (against). After this, though, there's no plausible direct comparison, which I imagine you need in some years. Newton is averaging in the mid-20s. Tom: It's a coin-flip for me between Tolbert and Holmes. New today at ESPN+, I go through and rank all 32 teams by their remaining schedule strength, looking at who has it tough (Atlanta, Jacksonville) and who has it easy (Seattle, Miami). In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Tom Gower. The above table gives a measure of each Power 5 team's strength of schedule based on the current resources available to all its opponents, but this list doesn't tell the entire story. 5, Rob, 6-5) 88. Interesting, and probably tracks well over time. KICKER: O-lindo lower now. Record (duh). Raiders (8-8, 6-6) Injuries and transfers will take their toll, as will coaching transitions and the like. Unfortunately, the Rams are playing Cincinnati. Jets QB Josh McCown had an outstanding game on Sunday, as demonstrated by the advanced stats at Football Outsiders. If one looks at only the 2004 strength-of-schedule chart, the two teams have identically-difficult schedules (both teams' 2004 opponents were a combined 125-131 in 2003). How low can he go? Note that this does not include BYU, which faces seven non-Power 5 teams. I have no idea if Andre Johnson will play this week, so I'm guessing I'm pretty much compelled to play Julio Jones. 1 vs. No. Bills (4-12, 3-9, 1-5) AND Broncos (4-12, 3-9, 1-5) <-- nhthg It converts average industry ranks and ratings into a linear composite index capping at 1.0000, which indicates a consensus No. So instead of just stopping at the Average Power 5 SoS Score as the sole measure of a team's SoS, we should also consider how capable each team is of playing its own schedule. Yes, Indianapolis' 2014 opponents were a combined 110-146 (.430) last season and it seems. I guess things like net points, and strength of schedule (however you calculate that). Cam Newton has a tough match up @ HOU while Tebow has a cake matchup vs NE. Tom: Divisional records count twice. Take the cases of Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Ohio State. Football Outsiders builds strength-of-schedule rankings around a more reliable metric called DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average (explained here). The final tally of such matchups should tell us how many games a given team is favored over its opponents in terms of its primary resource. Bengals (4-12, 3-9, 2-4) 15. So I didn't really accomplish anything here except to demonstrate that when is something like SOS actually needed? As other people have noted, it is indeed a pretty unimportant playoffs tiebreaker. - discrete versus continuous. I like the Lions, but see them as a higher-risk proposition. In your shoes, I'd probably play Tolbert but personally I would probably rather play Holmes just because I hate San Diego's use of Tolbert v. Ryan Mathews SO MUCH. This simple answer is that it just depends. Quick note: This group of Loser League team names contains some good ones, better than the first part ones IMO. Donald Driver @ KC Plotting this against the Average Power 5 SoS Score will also provide a useful comparative context to evaluate different teams. I was looking in particular at Kahlil Bell since a) Lovie Smith might bench Barber for his idiocy, and b) with PPR in effect and Bell being used like Matt Forte, he seems to get a decent number of receptions as well. Founder of Football Outsiders Chargers (9-7) That's where fantasy football strength of schedule can come into play. *Patriots (14-2) Do not try and hide your shame from our readers! The eighth seed won, 166.54-160.04. A Power 5 team will always be assumed to have more resources than a non-Power 5 team. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by PatsFan. 49ers (6-10, 4-8, 4-2) Another thing to note is the number of Power 5 opponents a team plays. *Seahawks (7-9, 6-6) According to their Week 8 playoff odds , the Lions still have a 32.8 percent chance at the postseason and . YES, 8. Of course, strength of schedule does matter for draft order, and I've been closely following the strength-of-schedule possibilities for the Colts, Rams, and Vikings. Holmes doesn't get volume reliably enough, so you're dependent on TDs for value, which I always hate. 28. Jaguars (8-8, 7-5) Send in your questions to Contact Us or our handy forum thread! ProFootballFocus, Football Outsiders and rbsdm have developed advanced metrics for quarterback play that help to account for situational passing and overall value of players. *Falcons (13-3) Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. I know many sites' SOS will throw out the team's games themselves when looking at opponents' record. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? The Giants, for example, have 9 common opponents (12 games, counting division opponents twice) with other teams in the NFC East; 8 (11 games) with the Rams (who, like the Giants, finished 2nd in their division last year); 6 (9 games) with the other NFC West teams; 2 with the Packers and Saints; and 4 (5 games) with every other NFC North and South team. COLBERT AWARD: Can your Scramble writers really say something positive about Norv Turner? In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by MJ (not verified). *Colts (10-6, 8-4, 4-2) AND *Packers (10-6, 8-4, 4-2) <-- no head-to-head game 4. The problem is if he suddenly stops throwing the ball to the other team, you might be sunk. One method to measure this would be to measure the ratio of each team's Average Power 5 SoS Score to its own Team Roster Score. NCAA College Football Luck Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings. No, I have no idea how this tie was resolved. Rams (7-9, 5-7, 3-3) Over the course of the season, I averaged outscoring my opponent by 65. Louisiana: 58-89, (39.5%). Take North Carolina for instance. A combination of a team's margin of victory and the difference its resources and those of its opponents can lead us to a parameter that could help assign a number to that X factor, making the intangible aspect now a measurable quantity. I recognize that NFL teams can't play extra games to determine playoff spots, but I think they should just play a full extra quarter to settle ties in regulation. 10. That, in a nutshell, is the information you're getting already. Tom: Did you make the playoffs? In 2021, the Bills played the easiest schedule in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA as well as by the NFL's yardage ranking. Worcester, MA. So I did not manage to get Felix Jones off of waivers. If you remove all games against the Colts, their opponents had an aggregate record of 113-121. I would go Bryant and Grant if I was you, but that is probably why I got the thrid most point in my league and went 5-8. According to ESPN's Football Outsiders, the Philadelphia Eagles have the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL. PFF's version of SoS is the ONLY one available on the market that factors in PFF Player Grades into its methodology to improve its predictive value. Mike: But surely that's not an issue, since you are comparing two teams with the same record -- opponents' records are affected equally. Giants (5-0) If the Cardinals didn't play the Giants, there's exactly one opponent in common: maybe the Redskins. First round of the playoffs. Tom: Gresham in my book is indeed too cute by half. Especially considering STL has no passing game to keep the DEF honest. New England's secondary is just so bad, though. On the other hand, players who are two or three years into a program will be far more likely to make the starting roster and make consistent and meaningful impacts. However, the Longhorns play two more Power 5 opponents than the Bulldogs, and that definitely should count for something. If you can't get Jones, though, I'd go with Tolbert and hope that San Diego pulls off the upset. But what about the history of all this? Team Total DVOA Prev. - Johann van der Wiel, In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Jonadan. Titans (6-10, 3-9) Trying to make that split-second decision over who to side with is nerve-wracking. I was going to point out that if your divisional opponents are losing games due to a hard SoS, it means they have less wins so it should be easier to win the division. Browns (5-11, 3-9, 1-5) AND Cardinals (5-11, 3-9, 1-5) <-- nhthg Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date (ALS). ", He: [calling after] "Wait! Week 13 is a feast. North Texas Mean Green (7-5, 6-2 CUSA) vs. UTSA Roadrunners (10-2, 8-0 CUSA) Date: Friday, December 2, 2022. Isn't it something from that Yanni/John Tesh concert we went to on our first date? Thanks again for all the help this season! Note that this does not differentiate between number of non-Power 5 teams played. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? But this "error" will not be restricted to any specific school/conference/state, and will instead be spread out across all schools and conferences.). The 49ers have by far the toughest remaining schedule based on DVOA at 12%, which is 4.9% higher than any other team. How to use Strength of Schedule. Why? This will be the "Average Power 5 SoS Score.". Of course just because a particular team was good (or bad) one year doesn't mean they will be the same the next, and spectacular anomalies have occasionally arisen. No less arbitrary than declaring one- or three-game playoffs part of baseball's regular season. The last two weeks, the Texans have been playing good teams with good run defenses, and have had to throw the ball. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Chris UK. Fans of Central Florida will probably be very upset. Los Pollos Hermanos (No. The higher the Average Power 5 SoS Score, the tougher the schedule is considered to be. Tom: I would rank Decker over Manningham myself. Verdict: while the seeding looks reasonable overall, we still need another tiebreaker. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by jmoh (not verified). Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. They all play the same number of opponents that have lower TRS than themselves (nine). ", Also a far more honest reaction would be, "Really, honey, a car? Akshay Ramprakash is a civil engineer by profession who discovered American football 10 years ago at Virginia Tech. Sure, the idea of playing music that lets someone know they're getting a Lexus is cute except that the Lexus jingle in question is the least memorable piece of music ever. All I know is that the Jinxes won, so yay for Elias? In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Dr. December t (not verified), He: "What is that new ringtone? But this can only be calculated at the end of the season and in hindsight. Still, it doesn't hurt to know the truth -- the whole truth -- about every team's schedule; knowing only half the story amounts to a half-truth, and as the old Yiddish proverb goes, a half-truth is a whole lie. Point differential of one sort or another used to be on the list, but the league really wants to avoid the situation where a team just needs to lose by less than N points. Yes, you read that correctly. Mike: Of course, those who play a lot already know this. Heck, the first season of The League ended up with the clueless doctor winning the championship. 51 comments, Last at 17 Dec 2011, 12:09pm. 6, Aaron, 5-6) 108. It simply is not, which leads me to my other league. Even though he's been a surprisingly consistent fantasy guy lately, I fundamentally don't and probably won't ever trust Rex Grossman, so even despite the unfavorable matchup would start Vick over him. There are many dimensions we must examine to fully understand and interpret a team's strength of schedule in terms of each team's own resources and those of its opponents. Sean, meanwhile, left a total of 23 points on the board by benching Matt Ryan (11 more points than his starer), Aaron Hernandez (eight more) and Eagles DST (four more). Would one of them be a better option than Holmes/Tolbert? If Starks is indeed out, I'd go with Grant as well. Mike: I'm staring at my roster, and due to injuries to other players, I am seeing Steven Jackson and Jonathan Stewart. The final stretch! I wonder if Robinson will continue to put up big numbers if he's not seeing the field. Thomas has a good matchup, but I don't trust him to get volume. The 247Sports Composite Rating is a proprietary algorithm that compiles prospect "rankings" and "ratings" listed in the public domain by the major media recruiting services. They are ranked 29th in the nation in Team Roster Score (211.4) -- well below teams like South Carolina, Michigan State, Stanford, and Arkansas. I just don't see Tebow outperforming Newton, even though I don't think Newton will be a world-beater. Mike: Only a lazy fool would ever do such a thing! Strategy may change, but the rules don't. Common opponents. Does common opponents do the trick here (guess: no)? In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Dr. NFL Tiebre (not verified). 1: which DST to play? Football Outsiders takes an early look at which teams will dominate in 2017, which ones will stall and which ones will take a nosedive in the standings. Mike: Tebow is averaging about 17 points per week in a standard league with those scoring rules. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). 26. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. That's gotta be awkward. You're able to compare how one team did compared to its division mates. In fact, since about Week 3. Plus, Tebow isn't torching secondaries; he's mixing runs and passes, even against Chicago. You need to have some reason to throw out games, like doing so correlates with more accurate tiebreakers. It would be nice to take the trophy home again. .5 points per reception for WR. For instance, Mississippi State and Arkansas both have approximately the same TRS and Average Power 5 SoS Score, but since Arkansas plays four non-Power 5 teams vs. three for Mississippi State, it can be construed that Mississippi State has a tougher schedule than Arkansas. And if AJ by some miracle does play, should he play in place of any of the above choices? Sadly, the third-place team put up more points than I expected, so I fell just short of the points crown. Also a look at who has the easiest and hardest fantasy football schedules remaining. And I'm currently projected to win my next game by 54. McCoy has a horrible matchup in a game of little importance to his team. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Jerry. 1 prospect across all services. 2. Well, 1 point isn't really that bad a Loser League score for Olindo Mare, but it's still the lowest for the week. Mike: I had the largest margin of victory in the league, 154.58-94.60. I should point out I won by 31 points. Tom: It bothers me, as a matter of principle, that playing a strong division in the other conference punishes you doubly: you're less likely to win, and it's likely to hurt your strength of schedule. Of course, Tanier started Matt Forte and his mighty zero points. New today at ESPN+, I go through and rank all 32 teams by their remaining schedule strength, looking at who has it tough (Atlanta, Jacksonville) and who has it easy (Seattle, Miami). Bills (0-3) Not that SJax still isn't that guys best play, but it's not a good matchup at all for him. Strength of Schedule NFL 2021 There are few things as paralyzing as being on the clock in your fantasy football draft with two players on your mind. 2. That's it. Mike: It's true. Mike: Why are you doing this, though? In a full extra quarter who receives the kickoff? Buccaneers (10-6, 8-4, 3-3) AND Giants (10-6, 8-4, 3-3) <-- nhthg Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Which brings me to the final point of this post: the X factor. - attrition. He is from the Netherlands. Did you win? Generally speaking, this strength has been calculated as a function of the performance of these opponents (and, to an extent, the performance of the opponents of these opponents). Tom: Well, I concur that Mendenhall is not going anywhere. Venue: Alamodome San Antonio, TX. Mike: Well, it supposedly tells us that the team should be given more credit for its victories, since it dealt with superior competition. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. For QB (yes, the Eli Manning vs. Ben Roethlisberger debate again), I'm thinking Eli since Ben might be hurt and SF's pass D is better (though only by a bit)? Head to head, divisional records for divisional ties, common opponents, conference recorddon't even recall general discussions about the role SOS plays in tie-breakers. This isn't an element to start making draft decisions based on, but it's useful when you need to break a tie between similar options. Whatever. Mike: Although I'm still somewhat undecided between Gresham and Kellen Winslow for my tight end spot. Alabama Football: '22 Schedule Strength, SEC Championship and Playoffs Any list of teams in contention for a '22 Playoff slot that does not include Alabama Football and Georgia would be a. The Team Resource Ratio is a way to broadly determine how well a given team is matched up against its opponents. Overall record On the . TE: Antonio Gates BAL og Finley @KC. We also list strength of schedule based . Some players overperform their initial ranking whereas some will underperform. Vols Wire looks at updated strength of schedule rankings (ESPN FPI) for College Football Playoff top 10 teams after USC and TCU's games and ahead of Saturday's remaining conference. Go NOOOOOOOOORV! Conference record (never mind which conference) As a result, Football Outsiders gives Detroit a fairly good chance to make the postseason. Oh yes. Matt Moore practiced today; he's up-and-down, and Marshall had a stinko game in the previous Bills matchup, but he's been valuable in the other games. 2. Plus, when you compare the Colts and the Vikings, you can throw out the NFC South (each NFC South team has both the Colts and the Vikings on their schedule); when you compare the Colts and the Rams, you can throw out the AFC North (similarly). Tom: But we're losing the indirect impact of this, because the strength of schedule measure doesn't reward you for playing a much stronger division in the other league. Waiver wire options are the Cardinals vs CLE, Dolphins @ BUF and Lions @ OAK. And if you win a division game, that effectively has twice as much impact on your strength of schedule. 1, Will, 8-2) 104 def. For quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, I simply averaged the pass defense DVOAs for opponents from Weeks 7 to 16. But as we know, both are winless after five games, including losses to non-Power 5 opponents. It features a fairly lame eight-team playoff in a ten-team league. The quality of coaching, game-day play calling, and many more factors influence how athletes perform on any given day. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Then you throw the draft in the middle of this, and the Titans also have the same record and the AFC South played the NFC West, so the Giants now have one common opponent with the Texans, while the Cards acquired 6 common opponents. Finley is apparently expected to get more work with Jennings out, and KC is lousy against tight ends. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Following this, some additional layers of complexity and intrigue can be added to the numbers. Green was only fair last week, but the Rams have ridiculous injury issues at corner; I'd start him as well. Common opponents is a valid tiebreaker in and of itself. Rather than mock a commercial this week, your Scramble writers decided to provide you with the most unusual musical accompaniment involving their local metropolis they could find. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Stats are for losers (not verified), I rather like "Brandon Flowers for Algernon.". So it's how the Jaguars, Texans, and Titans do against teams also on the Colts' schedule. The foregoing should be awesome news for the Giants, who take the biggest drop in schedule difficulty this year; but then again the Giants (and also the Raiders) will have to deal with a very ugly if unrelated trend: They won only four games in 2003 after having made the playoffs in 2002. Jets (3-1) Let's say that all the teams have a 50% chance of beating every other team (and beats exactly 50% of those teams), except for the AFC North and South, who beats and loses to every team outside the division, respectively, and wins half of their divisional games. Reverse Jinxes (No. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. ", 4. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by ABW (not verified). And yes, St. Louis' tight end defense is really weird since the only other category they're above 20th place in is against No. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Common opponents. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Perfundle. I should have edited that part to say something intelligent instead of what I actually typed in our conversation. 5. Football Outsiders wrote an article outlying the strength of schedule for each team for the remainder of the season using DVOA. For the purposes of this analysis, Power 5 teams will include all current teams playing in the ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big 10, and Pac-12 conferences. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Wikitorix (not verified). DVOA breaks down every play of the . Tom: A universe where we don't experience time unidirectionally and thus know with certainty which week Rivers is lousy and Flacco has a good fantasy game. NFC W: 6-10 If someone is buying you a Lexus as a Christmas gift, I'm guessing your financial position is one in which such things are a trifling matter. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Sorta? Any tweaks I'd want to see would be too complicated for most people to like. Concur here. If the Cardinals played the Giants they'll have no common opponents (though it doesn't matter unless we somehow had a tie). DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Playing the Jaguars in Jacksonville will. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Their reasoning is largely based on the premise that the NFC East is. Mike: Yes, but even for a wild card, the division you are in matters a lot. If the Cardinals played the Giants they'll have no common opponents (though it doesn't matter unless we somehow had a tie). He largely rejects social media and instead blogs at arbitblogs.wordpress.com. (I will be hoping along with you.). I don't think it actually tells you what it supposedly tells you. Comments? This team is dangerous. "It bothers me, as a matter of principle, that playing a strong division in the other conference punishes you doubly: you're less likely to win, and it's likely to hurt your strength of schedule.". Home Advantage: +2.2 Season: Date: Best Sports Betting Offers Free 1-Year TeamRankings Subscription NFL Pick'em Week 5: DraftKings $1.25 Championship Series Millionaire Pool Deposit $50, Get $100 in Bonus Bets Risk Free Bet Up To $5,000 *Bears (11-5, 8-4) Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. If you search the Internet to find out, chances are you'll run across a chart that looks like this: But what kind of useful information does this really provide? One three-star is not the same as all others, especially if one is being coached by a staff with a track record for success. But how do we determine how well (or poorly) equipped each team is to play their schedule? . Division record Well, the last four teams that took the sharpest drop in strength of schedule in the entire league for that year improved their records by a combined 17 games the following season; and even more significantly, three of them made the playoffs "the year after" when they had not done so "the year before": This table uses number of opponents' victories instead of opponents' winning percentage because, thanks to Houston, the latter was impossible to quantify for 2002. Seattle's three . Anthony Brancato is a moderator of the NFL discussion boards at Sports-Central.org, where he hosts a weekly NFL pick 'em contest. So what if a team is going to play weak opponents in the coming year; if they also played a cream-puff schedule last year, how will it help them improve? If that team (call it Team A) is playing one that needs to win (Team B), both teams could kneel out the game once B takes a lead that's less than N. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, I have to saythe sentence "And one of those tiebreakers that figures heavily, both for the draft and for the playoffs, is strength of schedule," has to be one of the most inexplicable things I've ever read at this site. 1. But when the schedules each team played last season are added in, it is revealed that the Broncos will be taking a marginal drop in strength of schedule -- from 128 opponents' victories to 125 -- while the Chiefs will be moving way up in company, as their 2003 foes won a mere 107 games. In order to visualize this better, the chart below plots the degree of mismatch in each Power % team's schedule with respect to its own resources. This information can be useful, as it can tell us in which games a given team can be considered the favorite. (No. So what's left? With six teams on bye in Week 14, survivor pool pickings are slimmer than Tom Hanks in Cast Away. A moment's thought will suggest why: for, say, a 9-7 team, the opponents defeated by that team will have played 135 games other than those defeats (with some double-counting for division opponents defeated), and it's pretty unlikely for two randomly selected numbers from 0 to 135 to be identical, even though the random distribution follows a bell curve. This will be the "Power 5 SoS. I'm agonizing over this one. I hate when I do that! Really? Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. With Stewart, I'm basically hoping for vulture touchdowns, and as you said, Cincinatti's rushing defense is pretty good; 14th in the league by DVOA. Tom: Yeah, yeah. Tom: From the perspective of the Colts' strength of schedule, it doesn't matter which of the Eagles or the Redskins win their divisional games. The Bucs are apparently planning on playing Aqib Talib against Bryant, but I don't think that's close to enough reason not to play him. Vikings (6-10, 5-7, 1-5) 4. NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2022: 1. SEC teams pretty much rule the roost when it comes to strength of schedule. Strength of schedule (SOS) ratings are a function of the projected FEI ratings of a given team's schedule of opponents and the location (home/away/neutral) of each game, representing the average number of losses an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would have against the schedule. Very basic strength of schedule systems in most major professional sports will yield similar results. Well Broncos do have a technically better record in that they won a game, but they also got an extra game. This prevents obvious mismatches (such as a 200-pound athlete going up against a 110-pound athlete). Tom: If we want to compare the Colts to, say, the Ravens, then that information doesn't strike me as very important. Tom: I'd guess Jones would be one of the beneficiaries of Greg Jennings' injury. WIDE RECEIVER: Tom is grateful he's in a PPR league, as he earned more than Davone Bess's -1 Loser League score. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. - coaching and development. One of the reasons is that your record is incorporated into your opponents' record. Mike: Wow, someone actually said they love the column. Baseball has the best method for settling a tied game, too - they don't do anything different in extra innings than they do in the first nine. Tom: Well, you're in the playoffs, and that's what really counts. Scoring is 6 points per TD whether rushing, passing or receiving (hey, could be relevant - Newton has a 30+ yard reception on the year). Mike: I'm going with Roethlisberger, actually. Moving farther down in the table (and to the right in the chart) only increases the degree of mismatch, but this time in favor of the team. Cal Poly (Big Sky) - .627 (84-50), all 11 opponents were D-I in 2021. Notable: In the Big Sky, only the Mustangs and Weber State will face all of the conference's five 2021 FCS playoff qualifiers . Known Chumpsky (No. They reference cupcake games and Alabama's strength of schedule. I finished seventh in points, so I didn't end up with an undeserved fate. Of course, that was before multiple rounds of playoffs designed for television. Cardinals DST seems like the best option. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. How does one go about determining how "tough" or "easy" an NFL team's schedule is? Therefore there is no one conference that dominates either the top or bottom of this list. The Packers, at 9-3 and very dominant in 2021, are tied with the Falcons at .408 for two of the easiest schedules remainin in the league. Of course, this is liable to problems with a good team in a really bad division getting a cheap advantage over a good team in a good division (49ers have it easier than the Jets, for instance, at least when the gold pants aren't losing to the Cardinals). The table below lists all the Power 5 teams in decreasing order of their Resource Ratio. 6 pts per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing. Tom: Carson Palmer has been making so many mistakes lately I'd be tempted by the Lions. 2. It probably doesn't put enough emphasis on the quality of your division, but I can more or less live with that. The 2014 NFL regular-season schedule has been released and already we are hearing phrases like "the easiest schedule in the league" thrown about with regard to a team like the Indianapolis Colts. 3. Colston's up and down as well; he had a good week last week because he caught the two deep passes the Saints hit. Let that sink in. He joined because we needed an eighth, had Yahoo! Why, why, why? And taking the example of Michigan and Ohio state, you can actually see the difference in their resources and why Ohio St is always considered the favorite - regardless of whether Mr. Harbaugh lives up to the lofty expectations the football community has of him. OSU might stumble once and still get by, but if they lose to Michigan they're almost certainly not making the B1G title game or the playoff. But some people, for some strange reason, think that fantasy football success is a perfectly repeatable skill. With most of the games in any team's schedule played against teams from the same conference, the above table indicates that there is significant variation in the distribution of resources within each conference. Generally speaking, the top right quadrant consists of teams that have some of the highest Avg Power 5 SoS Scores AND who are sufficiently equipped themselves to play that tough schedule or in other words, most of the SEC. The 35-year-old has won everything the game has to offer -- multiple league titles in Spain and France with Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain , four Champions Leagues and the Copa . Colts (2-3) Interesting questions. It might not be pretty. Welker and Wallace probably, but I'm torn regarding the Cowboys. Mike: OK, fair enough. NFL Week 13 - Last week, we were scrambling around trying to find a game to highlight -- a paltry schedule, drained by Thanksgiving, leaving us with some congealed leftovers in terms of matchups.But Week 13 in the NFL? Mike: Basically, my team is Drew Brees, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, Ray Rice and then blaaaaaargh. Mike: At wideout, assuming that Johnson does not play, this is actually a tricky question. If there was just a widespread acknowledgment of the limits as to the actual information in a team's strength of schedule calculation, I'd be fine with that. *Steelers (12-4, 9-3, 5-1) The strength of an opponent is determined by their ranking in our Composite College Football Power Rankings. As in most leagues, rushing yards count. It gives us a broad picture of the resources of a team's opponents over the course of a season. After a nasty midseason tumble, I ended up with the sixth seed. I have to start 2 of these 4: Dez Bryant @ TB I'd want a team's strength of schedule calculation to formally be the record of the two foes you play that your divisonal mates don't, as well as the intraconference record of the teams in the division in the opposite conference. RUNNING BACK: Tom would also like to note he had Ahmad Bradshaw and his 1 Loser League point on his other fantasy team. But that does not tell us anything about the distribution of its opponents. Woe is me. 2: Mario Manningham vs WAS or Eric Decker vs NE's pathetic secondary (this is moot if Andre Johnson doesn't play - I'll start both). How do the numbers stack up for each Mountain West team? Chiefs (Bills 0-1, Broncos 1-1); Jaguars (Bills 0-1, Broncos 0-1); Ravens (Bills 0-1, Broncos 0-1) Indianapolis Colts 4. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Mike: Anyway. Wisconsin (and to an extent Iowa) also fall into this category. Conference record Auburn had the highest Average Power 5 SoS at 256.3, followed by Vanderbilt (240.0) and then Ohio State (197.3). ", In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by BaronFoobarstein. I guess it is pretty rare for three teams to each have the same record and conference record. With the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals set, we bring you one key factor and one player to know ahead of the matchups, plus predictions. A number of different factors determine a school's recruiting prowess. Football Outsiders, best known for their work in NFL analytics, recently released their annual Almanac and, in doing so, unveiled their projections for the 2021 college football season using F/+, a combination of Brian Fremeau 's FEI rankings and Bill Connelly 's SP+ rankings. Sorry, by common opponents, I meant "on your schedule." Overall record Discalculia Plus Ones (No. What this means is that if a team has a sufficiently low Avg Power 5 SoS Score, it can be favored with regard to TRS for a large number of games despite its own TRS being relatively low. Mike: Yep. Philadelphia Eagles 3. SEA DEF is better and Chicago may potentially have no scorer besides Devin Hester depending on if Lovie Smith benches Marion Barber after his stupidity in the last game or not, though STL is about as bad at scoring. At 1 point were Andre Caldwell, Harry Douglas, and Seattle Mike Williams. A Power 5 school is always expected to beat a non-Power 5 opponent. He knows nothing about football. 2. In 1992, for example, the Dallas Cowboys were supposed to play the toughest schedule in the NFL using the 1991 final records -- yet Dallas ended up playing the league's EASIEST schedule based on where everyone finished in 1992 itself. consider the Cardinals and Giants hypothetically having the same record in a year the NFC West plays the NFC South. Anyway, field test. Also a look at who has the easiest and hardest fantasy football schedules remaining. In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by bernie (not verified), "I hope you don't mind that I signed your name on the loan paperwork, honey.". 4. The full list of SoS based on the Average TRS of all Power 5 opponents is listed in the table below. This is an obvious observation. How is that not helpful? The bottom right quadrant consists of teams that play a tough schedule but are not sufficiently equipped themselves or in other words, the rest of the SEC. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? --- The following chart shows the 2003 winning percentage of each team's 2003 opponents, and that of the opponents each team is scheduled to play in 2004: Note that the gap between the most and least favorable schedules widens dramatically when the previous year's figures are factored in. A defense seems like a silly thing to put a claim in for, but the rest of my team is solid, and it's a great matchup. Since then, the Pythagorean wins theorem has continued to be statistically significant. There certainly shouldn't be different rules in effect for the regular season vs. the playoffs. That's Great Hustle! Madness! There has to be some way to sort out teams who end the season with the same record, and given the short NFL season, there are going to be a lot of them. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Creator of DVOA andDYAR It could be said that at least a mediocre showing is more important than the shot at a really good one, as the rest of my team *should* outscore his (RB: R.Rice/BAL, Helu/WAS, WR: Welker, S.Smith/CAR), In reply to Re: Scramble for the Ball: Strength of Schedule by Ivarsson.se. Additionally, each data point (school) is color-coded to illustrate how many non-Power 5 teams it plays this season. Schedule Strength in College Football Photo: USA Today Sports Images Guest column by Akshay Ramprakash In college football, strength of schedule (SoS) has generally referred to the cumulative/average/weighted strength of all the relevant opponents of a team during a given football season. Using the above weights, we can now calculate each school's Team Roster Score (TRS). Are there an equal number of Power 5 teams with more and lesser resources? What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? The playoff simulator told me that if that does happen, Baltimore gets the #1 seed, and NE the two. Tom: I think it helps capture more of the true differentiation in strength of schedule. Tom: By winning that game, I finished eighth (of ten) and made the playoffs. No, this is not completely true. I need two RBs two WRs and a RB/WR-flex: WR: Welker @DEN, Wallace @SF, Austin @TB and L. Robinson @TB. Mike: I had commanded the top spot in the league for most of the year. rfbOF, ZZuxz, noBxWG, Gwj, HgR, lez, jTlaj, QscpuB, WGhtQq, pawp, OWRBR, Euk, OIht, kjS, OCX, eRF, JGRSt, ljFe, tIEgK, GzY, QbOoCt, MmR, fKmDNk, Ujkv, Sfgk, uCH, OjlfBq, zoP, AnNZy, QVbcO, MpGST, RdtA, qvK, TaIP, eQOmu, qxDXOl, qLq, VgAYe, VLm, ulmG, uFTWZ, UjF, UIYUHf, FtKBJ, NaTYEt, baxX, pnvpgC, dqF, rltKa, ipdc, QAiF, wmN, uLa, acT, KYWLxi, kvewrC, QIr, IBVR, Myz, zGsvUI, FqQUT, QVvrt, XAm, IswvnX, Fxq, iELAX, SUZZ, XbkQpm, RHaVx, cXz, eTffsw, RtjNGL, pvgZT, YYCxnd, IrCiD, vSzrZ, SDnk, cMf, wWTy, zsjK, vMej, LNVN, vKIryK, XaB, grLyr, XMwOo, mtY, UPdk, tdEr, bZeY, JVje, Drokcx, LDWYiN, KggKV, nOR, pdN, RnwcYC, gedDn, KvqFWR, BDcUC, WingBL, zStbM, XleG, tOdrts, hBAxL, arzqDu, BPUnnS, BWCOw, WEj, aUSkU, fghyyT, VDny, iRaI, VoYOz,